Jamal Khashoggi disappearance: too much at stake for Saudi Arabia to face any real punishment
Richard Harris says the case of the ‘meddlesome’ regime critic has triggered Western outrage, but the rest of the world needs to consider what instability in Saudi Arabia would mean, given how vital its oil exports are
Modern spies seem to be just as cack-handed in using their licence to kill. We have moved from suave deadliness reminiscent of wartime efficiency, into the age of bumbling idiots – from James Bond to Johnny English.
The more recent accusation that Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist critical of the Saudi regime, had disappeared and presumed killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul is another chilling example of getting rid of those deemed “meddlesome”.
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The Turkish authorities undid Saudi protestations of innocence by publishing CCTV evidence showing that the journalist went in and did not emerge. It is at least positive to see that street cameras and facial recognition are still being used to solve crime rather than just in clandestine surveillance.
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However, the ruination of the big set piece conference is as far as it is going to go. Sadly, the world has more important ramifications to worry about than the disappearance and alleged death of a “meddlesome priest” by thuggish interrogators. Unlike the Russians, a Saudi apology is likely to be forthcoming, and forgiveness quick. World leaders might be angry about the fate of the journalist but the thought of creating an unstable Saudi Arabia by “punishing” the kingdom is unthinkable.
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Everybody – Russia, China, the US and the rest of the world – needs Saudi political stability. A civil war would devastate global oil production. If one of the Muslim fundamentalist groups took power, that would surely lead to a regional Gulf war and would be the catalyst for the mother of all global economic crises.
Saudi Arabia is the country with the biggest geopolitical risk in the world today, bar none. Whether you agree with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman or not, whether you like him, or not, it is in everybody’s interests for him to behave.
Richard Harris is chief executive of Port Shelter Investment and a veteran investment manager, banker, writer and broadcaster, and financial expert witness