Progress between China and the Philippines can’t guarantee peace in the South China Sea
- Lucio Blanco Pitlo III says continued dialogue and forums for discussing South China Sea issues are certainly welcome, but Beijing and Manila still have competing interests, and US-China rivalry looks set to play out in these waters
Duterte wants China, as the biggest claimant, to demonstrate responsibility through restraint and proper behaviour. This is not the first time he has asked China to temper its actions in the South China Sea; in August, he called out China for its bellicose air warnings to routine patrols in the area. At the same time, he also recognised the increasing US-China tussle over navigational and overflight freedoms in the contested sea and how this heightens the risk of potential conflict, with grave consequences for small littoral states like the Philippines.
This highlights the inadequacy of the code of conduct in governing interaction between claimant and non-claimant states. Hence, even with Manila’s best efforts – as Asean-China country coordinator – to shepherd the conclusion of an effective code, peace and stability in the strategic maritime space may prove elusive.
Moreover, while China’s installation of weather stations on its artificial islands may be in tune with its intent to provide public goods and play down its expanding security footprint, the dual nature of China’s structures and hardening of its effective occupation in the contested sea will not be taken lightly by other claimants.
Yet, incremental progress in confidence-building and dispute management continues to gather momentum. One concrete contribution of the 2018 Asean Summit is the adoption of a multilateral guideline to manage unintentional encounters between military aircraft. Asean countries and China also agreed to complete the first reading of the single draft code of conduct negotiating text by 2019. Before this, hotline communications between the foreign affairs ministries of the 11 countries had already gone operational, along with the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea.
In addition, China stayed away from undertaking unilateral drilling in the West Philippine Sea while both sides iron out a framework that would facilitate joint exploration. Although allegations of fishermen being harassed or intimidated surface, they are isolated incidents. As long as they remain so, the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism, Foreign Ministry Consultations and the Joint Coast Guard Committee for Maritime Cooperation will remain platforms for addressing concerns.
This month, Manila will convene the eighth Asean Maritime Forum (AMF) and the sixth Expanded AMF. Progress in handling maritime emergencies and promoting cooperation in the South China Sea may be tabled and, barring major incidents, the present course adopted by both sides will remain steady. That said, the US-China contest over military navigation and overflight in the strategic maritime space will continue to be a test of mettle.
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, a lecturer on Chinese Studies at Ateneo de Manila University and contributing editor (reviews) for the Asian Politics & Policy journal. He also sits on the Board of the Philippine Association for China Studies