Key Senate races to watch at the US midterm elections
- According to nearly all pollsters, the Democrats have a good chance of winning the House, while the Republicans are likely to retain the Senate
Republicans have a huge advantage as they seek to hold or expand their 51-49 Senate majority, with the battle for control running mostly through states that US President Donald Trump won in 2016.
Out of the 35 Senate contests taking place Tuesday, 10 involve Democratic incumbents seeking re-election in states that Trump won, often handily.
He has spent much of the final week before the election travelling to those states in the hope that it will nudge his supporters to the polls.
Meanwhile, Democratic hopes of taking the Senate hinge on nearly all of their incumbents winning – a difficult task – and on flipping seats in a few states that lean Republican, most notably Arizona, Tennessee and Texas.
Key races to watch for those keeping score, listed in order of poll-closing times:
Indiana
Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly is trying to fend off Republican businessman Mike Braun in a state that Trump won by 19 percentage points. Donnelly is Indiana’s lone Democrat elected statewide and has sought to align himself with Trump on the hot-button issue of expanding the border wall with Mexico.
He has portrayed himself as a moderate who works with both parties to pass legislation.
“I go against my party all the time,” he said recently.
Braun has sought to question Donnelly’s independence and describes him as a career politician. He notes that Donnelly supported Hillary Clinton’s bid for the presidency and sided with the vast majority of Democratic senators in voting against the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
Polls close at 7pm EST
West Virginia
Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is a former governor in search of a second full Senate term representing a state that supported Trump by a whopping 42 percentage points in 2016.
His opponent is Patrick Morrisey, a two-term state attorney general and staunch Trump supporter.
Manchin has made maintaining health care protections for pre-existing conditions a major focus of his campaign and has hit Morrisey for joining a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act.
He was the only Democrat to have voted for Kavanaugh. He also voted for Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch.
Morrisey calls Manchin a liberal who only acts bipartisan around election day.
Polls close at 7:30pm EST
Florida
Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is seeking a fourth term in the race against Republican Governor Rick Scott. Scott has spent millions of dollars out of his own personal fortune to help fund his campaign. He has said that he would work to cut taxes and regulation if sent to Washington.
The two have clashed sharply on gun violence, a big issue in Florida following the February shootings at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.
Nelson has stressed that he favours a ban on military-style assault weapons and implementing a comprehensive system of background checks.
Scott signed legislation in Florida that requires anyone wanting to buy a gun to be 21 years old, but the bill didn’t include a ban on assault weapons.
The two have also differed on health care, with Nelson calling for strengthening the Affordable Care Act, but Scott calling the law deeply flawed and costly.
Polls close at 8pm EST
Missouri
Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill is running for a third term against state Attorney General Josh Hawley. Trump won Missouri by nearly 19 percentage points, and the state has shifted from a battleground to strongly Republican in recently elections.
McCaskill is touting herself as a moderate: “Claire’s not one of those crazy Democrats. She works right in the middle and finds compromise,” says one of her recent radio ads.
Hawley has tried to cast McCaskill as a “party-line liberal”.
The candidates have also tangled over Hawley joining a lawsuit filed by a group of Republican attorneys general to overturn the Affordable Care Act.
Trump has travelled several times to Missouri to campaign for Hawley, repeatedly describing the state’s 38-year-old attorney general as a “star”.
Polls close at 8pm EST
New Jersey
Democratic Senator Robert Menendez is facing a tough re-election fight, and it has nothing to do with Trump.
Rather, allegations of corruption have alienated some New Jersey voters. His bribery trial ended last year with a hung jury. Prosecutors decided not to retry the case, but the Senate Ethics Committee followed up with a report that said his actions advancing the personal and business interests of a top donor “reflected discredit upon the Senate”.
Democratic groups have spent millions in the state to boost Menendez in his race against Republican Bob Hugin, a former pharmaceutical executive who has tapped his own wallet for US$24 million to finance a TV-ad-heavy campaign.
Democrats have more than 900,000 additional registered voters than Republicans in New Jersey, and Trump’s low ratings in the Garden State could give Menendez a boost.
Polls close at 8pm EST
Tennessee
Republican lawmaker Marsha Blackburn is running against former two-term Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen in a state Trump won by 26 percentage points.
Blackburn would be the state’s first female senator if elected. She has served eight terms in the House and is viewed as one of the more conservative members of that chamber.
Bredesen is trying to brandish his credentials as a centrist. He has said he will support or oppose Trump based on his specific ideas and how they affect Tennessee.
The two are running to replace retiring Senator Bob Corker, a Republican who has frequently clashed with Trump.
Polls close at 8pm EST
Arizona
Democrats have high hopes for flipping this seat in Arizona, where Democratic lawmaker Kyrsten Sinema is running against Republican Martha McSally.
They are running for the seat left open when Senator Jeff Flake, a sharp critic of Trump, opted to retire, acknowledging that he could not win a Republican Party primary in the current political climate.
McSally is a former Air Force fighter pilot who represents a moderate district that is based in Tucson. Sinema represents a district based in the Phoenix suburb of Tempe and is a former Green Party activist who transformed herself into a centrist Democrat.
She has one of the most conservative voting records among Democrats in Congress and presents herself as a non-partisan problem-solver.
Polls close at 9pm EST
North Dakota
Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is trying to fend off a strong challenge from Republican lawmaker Kevin Cramer in a state Trump won by 36 percentage points.
Heitkamp has sought to draw differences with Cramer on health care and trade. She says she is working to improve the Affordable Care Act while he’s been working to eliminate it.
Cramer has argued that Trump’s approach on trade must be given time to work.
Heitkamp’s campaign stumbled when it identified victims of domestic violence, sexual abuse and rape in an ad. Heitkamp apologised after she learned that several of the women named in the newspaper ad either hadn’t authorised being named or are not survivors of abuse.
Polls close at 9pm EST
Texas
Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seeking a second term against Beto O’Rourke, a rising star in the Democratic Party who has shattered Senate campaign fundraising records despite shunning donations from outside political groups.
O’Rourke is trying to become Texas’ first Democrat to win statewide office since 1994, but faces long odds given the advantage that Republican candidates have in statewide elections.
Cruz has made nice with Trump despite the ugly words they exchanged during the presidential campaign in 2016. Trump held a campaign rally for Cruz in Houston, calling the candidate “Beautiful Ted”.
Polls close at 9pm EST
Montana
Democratic Senator Jon Tester is seeking a third term against Republican Matt Rosendale, Montana’s auditor.
Trump has invested heavily in the race with four trips to a state he won by more than 20 percentage points. Rosendale has returned the admiration, describing himself as a Trump conservative.
Trump has blamed Tester for derailing the nomination of White House doctor Ronny Jackson to head the Veterans Affairs Department.
Facing all the Republican firepower, Tester has stuck with the populist approach that worked for him in his 2006 and 2012 elections, highlighting his life as a grain farmer and even the three fingers he lost as a child in a meat grinder.
Polls close at 10pm EST
Nevada
Republican Senator Dean Heller is seeking a second full term against Democrat Jacky Rosen in the one true battleground state that features a Republican incumbent.
Heller and Trump have embraced each other after a rocky start, with both highlighting their desire to get more of the president’s judicial nominees confirmed, a top priority for many social conservatives.
Heller is the only Republican running for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.
Rosen is a first-term congresswoman who could benefit from a wave of Democratic and female activism fuelled by opposition to Trump.
Polls close at 10pm EST
