Six months after Trump and Kim shook hands, denuclearisation a distant hope
- There were big promises when the leaders of the US and North Korea met in Singapore, yet Pyongyang still seems no closer to ditching the nukes. Is it taking inspiration from India?
“We signed a very good document,” Trump said, referring to a vaguely worded agreement with the North Korean leader to “work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula”.
In the weeks surrounding the June summit, Pyongyang destroyed or partially dismantled several high-profile facilities, including the Punggye-ri nuclear testing ground – the site of all six of its nuclear tests – and the Sohae missile testing site.
Analysts, however, have downplayed these moves as reversible, lacking independent verification, or coming after Pyongyang has already largely perfected its offensive capabilities.
“They are still offering up and milking the same concessions that they put on the table six, seven months ago,” said Vipin Narang, a nuclear proliferation specialist at MIT.
Two months after Trump-Kim summit, North Korea hasn’t changed at all
In August, a report commissioned by the UN Security Council said North Korea was continuing to advance its nuclear and missile programmes in spite of the recent detente and multiple rounds of international sanctions. Citing researchers at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, CNN reported on Thursday that new satellite imagery indicated North Korea had expanded facilities at a missile base in the country’s interior since the June summit.
“We could come up with all indicators to give us more faith that North Korea is going to denuclearise, but the question is did North Korea ever have the intent to begin with?” said Soo Kim, a former North Korea analyst with the CIA.
“Or was it a strategy or a ploy for the regime to extract more concessions, to elevate its status internationally through a very well-played summit, a very well-played PR move on Kim Jong-un’s part?”
On Tuesday, National Security Adviser John Bolton said Trump wanted to meet Kim again in January or February because he felt the North Korean leader had not lived up to his commitments. The latest sign of discontent with Pyongyang in Washington came just days after Trump remarked that he and Kim had a “good relationship” and were “getting along very well”.
“The repeated line from him and the White House is that the North has not tested any long-range nuclear ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons,” said Narang. “For him, that’s basically what the definition of success is. They can keep their nuclear weapons so long as they don’t make it a political problem for him and don’t test them.”
Second Trump-Kim summit ‘most likely’, US president says as he defends North Korea diplomacy
It is unclear what further action or commitments Trump might demand in a second summit with Kim, or what the US president might offer in return. The most crucial steps towards denuclearisation that Pyongyang has yet to take include providing an itinerary of weapons stockpiles and facilities, and allowing visits by international inspectors.
While Trump campaigned against the cost of stationing US forces in South Korea, a reduction of troops would be anathema to the Pentagon and hawkish administration figures such as Bolton.
“As long as Kim Jong-un is in power, I just don’t see any pathway to him voluntarily giving up his nuclear weapons, unilaterally,” Narang said.
“It only took a couple of years before the Bush administration turned around and said India is a de facto nuclear weapons state and we’re going to give them a civil nuclear energy deal and a 123 agreement,” he said, referring to a 2005 agreement in which Washington agreed to cooperate with New Delhi’s civil nuclear programme. “I think in a lot of ways North Korea is hoping that’s exactly what happens.”
Nevertheless, not all observers see denuclearisation as a lost cause.
“I think the main North Korean goal remains to protect its security by maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent and making as few concessions as possible on that front,” Oba said. “But the North Koreans also have something to gain from the current status quo, which is why they have taken some small actions to maintain a sense of momentum and positive feeling. I don’t think that what North Korea has done so far represents anything major, but that doesn’t mean they won’t consider bigger steps if there is a serious prospect for sanctions relief, political normalisation, or other benefits.” ■