The holidays are officially over, and the 2023-24 Hong Kong racing season is upon us.

There are 88 meetings, 830-odd races and endless possibilities with fortunes to be won and lost.

So let’s go fishing and get in the mood for the new term with some (educated) guesses about what might happen.

Romantic Warrior wins the Cox Plate

Hong Kong hasn’t had a winner in Australia since Cape Of Good Hope saluted in the 2005 Group One Australia Stakes (1,200m) – now the William Reid Stakes – but that will change in October.

Things haven’t gone perfectly for Danny Shum Chap-shing’s galloper in the past week, but that won’t stop the three-time Group One winner, and he could well return from his Australian mission with top-level wins in the Turnbull Stakes (2,000m) and Cox Plate (2,000m) under his belt.

While the five-year-old missed a trial on Friday because of the typhoon that smashed Hong Kong, and he had to gallop at 8pm on Tuesday night because of Australian quarantine regulations, Shum is happy with how everything is going ahead of his superstar’s flight on September 16.

There’s some uncertainty about who’ll ride Romantic Warrior in the Turnbull Stakes after James McDonald’s announcement on Tuesday that he’s in a race against time to recover from a foot injury, but Shum doesn’t seem the slightest bit worried.

Sweynesse and Sixty won’t both conquer HKIR

Two of Hong Kong’s genuine superstars are set to tread contrasting paths to the Longines Hong Kong International Races, and at least one of them will fall short on the big day.

No horse has won the Group One Hong Kong Mile first up since Glorious Days in 2013, and he did it after running in Japan in June, while every other local winner in the past two decades has tuned up in the Group Two Jockey Club Mile – formerly the International Mile Trial – in November.

If Golden Sixty does tackle the Hong Kong Mile first up, he’ll have gone 224 days between runs after winning the Group One Champions Mile in April.

Francis Lui Kin-wai is certainly setting a task for his eight-year-old.

On the other side of the coin is Lucky Sweynesse, who’ll look to defend his crown in this weekend’s Class One HKSAR Chief Executive’s Cup (1,200m) on opening day.

Very few local gallopers have won the Group One Hong Kong Sprint (1,200m) after beginning their campaign in September, and history could weigh more heavily than usual when it comes to Lucky Sweynesse, who Manfred Man Ka-leung continues to send to the well at just about every opportunity.

After racing on the final day of the 2021-22 season, Lucky Sweynesse resumed on the first day of last season and raced 10 times, lining up in every month except May and July, including twice in April.

There’s no question Lucky Sweynesse is one of the best gallopers in the world – and he would likely have won last year’s Hong Kong Sprint with even luck – but there’s a limit to what you can ask of a horse. Time will tell what that limit is for Man’s gun.

Size and Purton salute again

There are no prizes for predicting 12-time champion trainer John Size and six-time top jockey Zac Purton to take the spoils, so we’ll go a bit deeper into the final standings.

Purton will win his seventh title, followed by Hugh Bowman in second, Karis Teetan, Vincent Ho Chak-yiu and Lyle Hewitson.

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Size will become the first trainer to go back to back since he won four titles in a row between 2015-16 and 2018-19, while Frankie Lor Fu-chuen will finish second, with Caspar Fownes, Tony Cruz and Francis Lui Kin-wai to round out the top five.

Veteran Tsui will find a way

Veteran handler Me Tsui Yu-sak has struggled through the past two seasons and faces the end of his career if he receives a third consecutive strike for failing to meet the Jockey Club’s trainers’ benchmark.

The 62-year-old could only manage 13 wins last season and has only 36 horses in his stable, but this is a handler who has amassed 40-plus victories on multiple occasions and landed 37 wins just three seasons ago.

There are certainly no stars in Tsui’s stable, and he’ll need his unexposed gallopers to come on, but the Sha Tin mainstay can find a way to save his career.

Ng will have more winners at Sha Tin than Seoul

Pierre Ng Pang-chi will be in Seoul with Apache Pass and Duke Wai rather than Sha Tin this Sunday, but the second-season handler will still have more winners on home soil than abroad.

The testing Seoul sand has proven notoriously tough for Hong Kong gallopers, and a lot will have to go right for Duke Wai (Korea Sprint) and Apache Pass (Korea Cup) to return winners.

On the other hand, Ng has a red-hot winning chance with Greenwich at Sha Tin and should also be in the mix with Bon’s A Pearla, Fortune Warrior and I Give.